Virtualization and Cloud executives share their predictions for 2013. Read them in this VMblog.com series exclusive.
Contributed article by Jason Smith, Director of Product Management, User and Applications Virtualization Product Group, Liquidware Labs Inc.
2013 Boldly Going Where No Predictions Have Gone Before!
I am honored that VMblog.com would have me back again to
pontificate on predictions for 2013. Let
me start by revisiting predictions I made last year.
1) 2012: The year of real BYOPC
(Bring Your Own PC) adoption: I predicted this trend would grow and
from every indication it indeed has. It
has also fueled growth of a standardized virtual desktop with follow-me persona
at many organizations.
2) 2012: Tablets will become
increasingly commonplace to augment a full desktop experience: I predicted
that this market would explode further.
I predicted that if a tablet was not sitting on your desktop a year ago,
there is a good chance one will be there this year. Do you have one sitting
next to your PC right now? I'd make a
bet that many of you do. I boldly predicted that the Kindle Fire would account
for approximately half of new tablet market sales in 2012. That was bold and it did not come to fruition
completely but there is evidence that it still may be on the route to happening
eventually as reported just this week . Nexus
7 and others emerged and began to gain in market share. It should noted that
Apple has indeed begun to lose its grip just as it did in the Smartphone
market. In Q3 Apple dipped below 50% of tablet sales for iOS and
they had to eat crow by launching the iPad Mini in a smaller form factor,
something they had said they'd never do.
Apple will obviously continue to be successful but Tablets are now a
commodity in many respects but it still humors me to hear fan boys say one or
the other is better.
3) 2012: Growth for the virtualized desktop
market will continue its upward trend: This prediction came true for a
three key reasons; 1) Maturation of the technology, 2) BYOPC growth, 3) New
solutions that make more users more compatible with virtual dekstops - such as
follow me data, persona, and now follow-me applications that users can install
themselves. Even with this growth, the big vendors of virtualization are now
chasing the heterogeneous desktop, by acquiring and developing solutions for
physical desktop challenges. One such indication is the acquisition of Wanova
by VMware which gives them granular image management for Physical PCs.
1) Windows 8 will be continue to
encounter launch challenges:
Windows 8 is barely out of the gate with its launch but I predict that the cold
reception of the new OS by enterprises will continue. Like Windows Vista, this
will be the OS that most enterprises skip -- at least until a service pack
corrects the missteps the OS has made in the GUI department. Microsoft
intentionally removed the classic Windows 7 Start Menu during the developer
preview BETA. I think is a monumental mistake because the ease of use of the
new OS is messy for even expert Windows users. I boldly predict that Microsoft
will be forced by the market to make it an option to turn that component back
on. Hello Microsoft, take a lesson from Coca-Cola re: New Coke and admit it and
fix it sooner rather than later. At the time I write this, barely more than 50%
of enterprises have even made the switch from XP to 7 yet. They won't be chancing it by jumping to
Windows 8 anytime soon. Solutions on the market like Liquidware Labs
ProfileUnity make it seamless for users to go from XP to Windows 7 and all the
way to Windows 8 but it will be organization's that will be hesitant on the
Windows 8 OS that will cause slow adoption of this latest OS.
2) Windows 7 will be rapidly adopted:
Picking up where I left off on the previous prediction, organizations will be
in panic mode with the Windows XP end-of-life date rapidly closing in (April
2014). Although they won't likely jump
to Windows 8, they will go with a solid choice: Windows 7. Organizations that
leverage solutions that make the switch seamless to users, like our
ProfileUnity, will have it easy. Organizations that take a hit and miss
approach with limited tools like USMT or proprietary data profile solutions will
have a significant challenge ahead.
3) MDM/MAM Consolidation:
Mobile Device Management and Mobile Application Management technologies are
being touted by analysts as the next hot thing. These technologies assert to
solve the perceived problem of corporate data and apps existing on privately
owned devices such as Tablets and Smartphones. It seems like every day there is
a new player in this market. Let's be
clear, that market is in the Peak of Inflated Expectations
phase of Gartner's Hype Cycle, regardless of what anyone tells you. There are
alternatives to MDM and MAM that will emerge such as ensuring that any
corporate data is only remotely viewed. It is also important to note that
vendors like Microsoft have already built-in remote wipe capabilities in some
of their products such as Exchange. There will be rapid consolidation in this
market as some of the players are snapped up in 2013 acquisitions and others
become irrelevant. Just remember, best
of breed products are often not the ones snapped up first, fire sales are often
a key driver of deals.
4) Desktop Computing will continue to
This is one prediction I continue to make.
Many of us have stopped with the debate that either the Mac or the Windows
PC will win out, it is quite clear now that they will co-exist. Linux desktops will continue to have a
presence but with so little marketing to drive that market it will never
explode without a serious go to market come to reality meeting by the lead
vendors. Desktops of all types will
become a commodity statement. The
current fine line specifics between virtual desktops, physical desktops,
laptops, and Tablets will simply begin to disappear. User Management and Systems Management
solutions, such as ProfileUnity from Liquidware Labs, will help organizations
excel in the face of OS coexistence and migration. The seamless ability to effectively
manage any desktop the user touches with efficiency, regardless of delivery or
OS type will be the primary driver.
5) The emergence of a new way of
delivering Windows desktops:
Virtual desktops, thin clients, and solutions such as XenApp will still have
their place but I earnestly believe that there will be a new refreshing method
of delivering a dynamic Windows desktop that debuts in 2013. With client-side
hypervisor technology and self-resetting thin-clients, along with User
Management solutions, now able to decouple every integral part of the Windows
desktop from users, expect an emerging solution in this area. Imagine any type of existing physical or
thin-client Windows desktop having the ability to be non-persistent yet have
all the user persona and apps that users expect immidiently at logon. This emerging desktop delivery method will
dramatically lower the costs of delivering and managing desktops and make
disaster recovery and application management a built-in feature. I know it may sound a bit like fairytales and
pixie dust but you'll just have to trust me on this one and stay tuned in 2013.
There you have it, let me hear from
you on your related predictions... or feel free to critique mine. Chime in on the comments section below. I wish you the best in 2013!
About the Author
Jason E. Smith has led and advised numerous
successful systems management and security technology companies for more than
15 years. In addition to his long running role as a marketing consultant in the
industry, he currently serves as Director of Product Management for Liquidware
Labs' leading User and Application Virtualization solution. He was previously
an owner of Entrigue Systems which Liquidware Labs acquired in 2009. His
consulting clients have included Reflex Systems, ISS (now part of IBM), RES Software,
Opalis Software (now part of Microsoft), Vector Networks, Sonic Mobility (now
part of Avocent), UltraBac Software, ScriptLogic (now part of Dell), D&B
Software, DCA (now part of Attachmate), divisions of BellSouth, Red Hat
Software, and Citrix Systems. A proven technical-minded serial entrepreneur,
Jason was a Board Advisor and product marketing consultant, as well as an
equity shareholder, in Sonic Mobility which was sold to LANDesk/Avocent in
2004. He holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Mass Communications with a minor
in Psychology from The University of Georgia. He is a father of three girls,
husband of 17 years, and resides in Cumming, Ga.