This discussion has been taking place online for months, but now, according to a recent The Register article from Simon Sharwood, it sounds like Gartner is ready to put their official analyst stamp on things: Gartner predicts that 35% of VMware workloads will migrate to alternative platforms by 2028. This isn’t just another analyst forecast, it’s an indictment of how Broadcom’s acquisition strategy seems to have broken the trust between VMware and much of its customer base.
Let’s be clear. If you read the analyst briefings, the media reports, and end user comments online, this migration doesn’t seem to be solely about money. Sure, the price hikes can be eye-watering – AT&T reported that Broadcom tried to jack up VMware renewal costs by 1,050%. But enterprise IT leaders aren’t abandoning a platform they’ve relied on for decades simply because of sticker shock. Many are saying that they are fleeing because Broadcom has systematically dismantled everything that made VMware attractive in the first place. You know, what made VMware… VMware.
VCF9: When Innovation Becomes Coercion
So what else could be driving customers away? During VMware Explore 2025, it was clear that Broadcom is pushing VMware Cloud Foundation 9 (VCF9) as a complete, bundled solution. On paper, VCF9 looks impressive. It’s a comprehensive private cloud platform that includes compute, storage, networking, and management in one package. But therein lies the problem: a lot of organizations, albeit small to mid-size businesses, may not need or want everything that VCF9 offers.
Think of it this way: You’ve been happily using VMware’s hypervisor technology like ordering � la carte at a restaurant. You pick exactly what you need, maybe just vSphere for virtualization, or vSphere plus vSAN for storage. Suddenly, the new management tells you that you can only order the seven-course tasting menu, even if you just wanted a sandwich.
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This bundling strategy forces customers to pay for capabilities they’ll never use. A mid-sized manufacturing company that just needs basic virtualization now has to purchase enterprise-grade networking and advanced management tools they don’t have the staff to implement. Again, it’s like being forced to buy a Formula 1 race car when all you needed was a reliable sedan to get back and forth to work.
The Hyperscaler Gambit
And then there was Broadcom’s decision to prevent hyperscalers from reselling VMware licenses. Previously, customers could work with AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud to seamlessly blend on-premises VMware environments with cloud-hosted VMware services. Now they must buy licenses directly from Broadcom and somehow make them work with their cloud provider.
This change doesn’t just create procurement headaches. It fundamentally alters the relationship dynamics. As Gartner’s Julia Palmer noted, hyperscalers are now actively pushing VMware customers toward “proper cloud” solutions because they know these forced interactions will eventually lead to conversions. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google aren’t passive bystanders in this story. They’re actively courting disgruntled VMware customers with migration tools, incentives, and competitive pricing models. AWS has launched tools specifically designed to ease VMware migrations, while Microsoft has expanded partner incentives to help customers move to Azure.
Platform Choice vs. Cost: It’s More Complicated Than You Think
The common narrative suggests this exodus is purely cost-driven, but that misses the bigger picture. Yes, Nutanix and public cloud alternatives can offer comparable or lower pricing, but they also solve some fundamental problems that VMware customers have been living with for years.
Take Nutanix, which Gartner ranks as a top VMware alternative. While its pricing isn’t dramatically lower than VMware’s, Nutanix offers superior storage integration and support experiences that many former VMware customers genuinely prefer. The company has reportedly captured “hundreds” of VMware defectors, not just because of Broadcom’s missteps, but because they’re offering a genuinely positive platform experience.
Similarly, organizations moving to public clouds aren’t just seeking cost savings, they’re embracing the operational flexibility and innovation velocity that cloud-native services provide. When you’re already being forced to rethink your virtualization strategy, why not take the opportunity to modernize your entire infrastructure approach?
The Skills Gap Reality Check
Here’s something most coverage of this story glosses over: migrating away from VMware isn’t just a technology decision – it’s a massive organizational undertaking that many companies aren’t equipped to handle.
Palmer’s warning about Red Hat virtualization alternatives is particularly telling. While OpenStack and KubeVirt are technically viable VMware replacements, few organizations have the in-house expertise to support these platforms effectively. This skills shortage creates a natural brake on migration velocity, even when the financial incentives are clear.
The three-year timeline for full migrations that Gartner mentions isn’t just about technical complexity, it’s about the human element. IT teams need time to retrain, consultants need to be engaged, and business processes need to be redesigned. This extended timeline gives Broadcom a window to potentially repair relationships, though they show little sign of changing course.
The Subscription Model Rebellion
Broadcom’s shift from perpetual licenses to subscription models deserves special attention because it represents a fundamental change in how enterprises budget for infrastructure. Under the old model, companies could buy VMware licenses once and use them for years, depreciating the cost over time. The subscription model forces annual recurring payments that many CFOs find objectionable, especially when those subscriptions include capabilities they don’t need.
This isn’t just about cash flow, it’s about control. Perpetual licenses gave customers the ability to run their infrastructure on their timeline. Subscriptions create ongoing dependencies that many IT leaders view as strategic risks. When customers feel like they’re being held hostage, they start looking for exits.
To be fair, this isn’t a Broadcom only issue, a lot of software vendors have moved to the subscription model – not because it works best for their clients, but because it works best for the software companies selling it, providing them with a recurring revenue stream which looks better on the financial books.
What the Numbers Really Tell Us
Gartner’s 35% migration prediction isn’t pulled from thin air. It’s based on extensive customer research and market analysis. But let’s put this in perspective: VMware’s customer base includes more than 400,000 organizations. A 35% defection rate would represent approximately 140,000 customers seeking alternatives.
The reality is that Broadcom doesn’t need all 400,000 customers to remain profitable. The company has explicitly stated that it’s focusing on larger enterprise customers who can afford higher subscription fees. This strategy might work financially in the short term, but it abandons the mid-market customers who historically drove VMware’s growth and innovation.
The Broader Industry Implications
This VMware migration wave has implications that extend far beyond Broadcom’s financial statements. We’re witnessing a fundamental shift in how enterprises think about infrastructure dependencies and vendor relationships.
The concept of “vendor lock-in” has taken on new urgency as customers realize how quickly a beneficial relationship can turn predatory after an acquisition. Smart IT leaders are now building more diverse, portable infrastructure architectures that don’t create single points of vendor failure.
This trend benefits the entire ecosystem. Nutanix, Red Hat, AWS, Microsoft, and Google are all investing heavily in making migrations easier and more attractive. Competition breeds innovation, and the virtualization market is becoming more dynamic than it has been in years.
Looking Forward: A Fragmented but Healthier Market
Gartner’s forecast suggests we’re entering an era where no single vendor will dominate virtualization the way VMware once did. This fragmentation might seem chaotic, but it’s actually healthy for the industry.
Organizations will have more choices, more competitive pricing, and more innovation. The hypervisor addiction that Palmer referenced is finally being cured, forcing enterprises to think more strategically about their infrastructure choices.
For VMware loyalists still hoping for a return to the good old days, the reality is sobering. Even if Broadcom were to reverse course on pricing and licensing tomorrow, the trust that took decades to build is no longer there. Some customers might stay out of inertia or migration complexity, but the large scale evangelical enthusiasm that once drove VMware’s growth has been tampered.
The great virtualization exodus of 2025-2028 will be remembered as a cautionary tale about what happens when acquisition strategies prioritize short-term revenue extraction over long-term customer relationships. But it will also be remembered as the catalyst that finally brought real competition and innovation back to enterprise virtualization.
The question isn’t whether VMware will lose market share, Gartner has already answered that. The question is whether the alternatives will be ready to handle the influx of new customers, and whether enterprises will use this disruption as an opportunity to build more resilient, flexible infrastructure architectures.
For an industry that had grown comfortable with a single dominant player, this forced diversification might be exactly what is needed.
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