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VMware Predictions for 2010 - What's Next for All of us?

What do Virtualization and Cloud executives think about 2010?  Find out in this VMblog.com series exclusive.

Contributed article by Dr. Stephen Herrod, CTO, VMware

VMware Predictions for 2010 - What's Ahead for all of us? 

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."  - Niels Bohr

"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." - Alan Kay

I'm getting back to my virtualization crystal ball and making predictions as to what's ahead for all of us in 2010. However, first let's evaluate how 2009 actually played out relative to this year's predictions I posted about 12 months ago.

Predicting that virtualization in the data center would be a given in 2009 was not a real stretch, but I have to admit surprising myself in just how true this has become. It's not a question of if anymore; just questions of when and how. Related to this, the virtualization ecosystem in 2009 delivered optimizations, new products, and services all designed to further the benefits of virtualization and help it head towards ubiquity. From that perspective, VMware and our partners moved ahead with impressive progress around several predictions:

2. Storage Becomes Virtualization-Aware

3. Virtualization of High-End Applications Becomes Mainstream

4. Orchestration of Virtualization Across Datacenters Arrives

5. Networking Becomes Fully Virtualization Aware

8. Management Tools Increase Focus on the Virtual Datacenter

Even more significant, several companies emerged this year delivering complete bundles of server, storage and networking gear that are pre-packaged and completely optimized for virtualization, easing customer adoption and integration. As these bundles continue to be rolled out next year, I expect them to quickly become the common building blocks of newer data centers, making today's IT infrastructures more affordable, modular, and flexible, something that our customers can never get enough of.

One other prediction that seems to have played out well is:

10. Cloud Providers Utilize Virtualization for More Open, Compatible Offerings

The VMware vCloud initiative took off in a big way this past year with more than 1000 vendors, large and small, signing up to deliver VMware-based cloud offerings to their customers. The compatibility with VMware-based datacenters that this approach provides for customers has proven to be very popular. We've also seen a dramatic increase in the efforts of industry standards organizations to deliver compatibility tools necessary at both the application and management layers.

And before moving into 2010, I shouldn't neglect the predictions from 12 months ago that didn't turn out as planned. I'm giving myself only partial credit for each of these:

1. Virtualization of the Enterprise Desktop Breaks Out

6. Virtualization Arrives for Smart Phones

7. Virtualization-Focused Security Solutions Become More Common

9. Requirements of Green Datacenters Drives Virtualization Further.

As for excuse :)... the economy definitely forced businesses to do more with less and this caused many transformative investments to be postponed; short-term return on investment became a near single-minded focal point for customers. These are all still valid trends - especially as the economy rebounds -- and I do expect more progress in 2010 than what we saw in 2009 for all of them (especially enterprise desktop virtualization now that Microsoft Windows 7 is out).

As for new 2010 predictions, I'm most excited about three areas.

- First, the growing modularization of the data center, especially as server, storage and networking companies continue to evolve what are currently still relatively young partnerships. The EMC/Cisco vBlock bundles, as well as "converged infrastructure" offerings from HP, demonstrate that vendors understand that customers want simplicity, ease of use, and a single support channel for utilizing them. Look for more to come.

- Second, industry participants in 2010 will better define the private cloud and help customers implement it. We've finally emerged from the hype of cloud computing to tackle the realities of what's needed and confront the challenges that currently exist, particularly around security. Furthermore, customers are realizing that their IT landscape will include a mix of both private and public cloud offerings (hybrid clouds). Customers want this hybrid world to be more easily managed and give them the right balances between efficiency, scalability, security, and control I fully expect that vendors, systems integrators, and certification agencies will rally to meet that demand in 2010.

- The third and final prediction concerns higher-level application frameworks such as those provided by VMware's new SpringSource division. Higher level application frameworks have arisen to simplify a developer's job of building what are increasingly rich and powerful web applications. These application frameworks are also allowing developers to quickly build these applications, moving them from the coding stage to the deployment stage in amazingly short amounts of time. Several vendors are building these development frameworks directly into the cloud, further accelerating this deployment cycle. A problem is that most of today's PaaS offerings are tightly tied to a specific cloud vendor, and can force a customer to commit to a very specific deployment requirement. I expect 2010 to be the year when developers and customers recognize the need to have even more choice as to where their applications are run in the cloud. This will lead to both open cloud standards and the arrival of new PaaS offerings designed with cloud portability in mind.

I'll see you again in 12 months when we check back on progress on all of these! Happy virtualizing to all of you in 2010.

About the Author

Stephen Herrod is responsible for VMware's new technologies and collaborations with customers, partners and standards groups and was named CTO of the Year by InfoWorld in 2009. Stephen joined VMware in 2001 and has led the VMware ESX group through numerous successful releases. Prior to joining VMware, he was Senior Director of Software at Transmeta Corporation co-leading development of their "Code Morphing" technology. Stephen holds a Ph.D. and a Master's degree in Computer Science from Stanford University, where he worked with VMware's founders on the SimOS machine simulation project.

Published Monday, December 07, 2009 5:40 AM by David Marshall
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That’s my View - Enterprise desktop virtualization at a glance » Blog Archive » VMware Predictions for 2010 – What’s next for all of us? - (Author's Link) - December 7, 2009 8:32 AM
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This post was mentioned on Twitter by VMBlogcom: VMware Predictions for 2010 - What's Next for All of us? http://bit.ly/4K4WP9

Steve Herrod’s self-graded report card for 2009 virtualization predictions « fatvm – Share how to skinny "fat" VM's - (Author's Link) - December 7, 2009 6:15 PM
Steve Herrod’s Top 3 Virtualization Predictions for 2010 « fatvm – Share how to skinny "fat" VM's - (Author's Link) - December 7, 2009 6:28 PM
VMware Predictions for 2010 – What's Next for All of us? : VMblog … | VirtualizationDir - Top Virtualization Providers, News and Resources - (Author's Link) - December 8, 2009 12:22 AM
Cloud predictions for 2010 - (Author's Link) - December 8, 2009 2:02 AM
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