What do Virtualization and Cloud executives think about 2011?  Find out in this VMblog.com series exclusive.

Over the last 20 years, I have watched many new trends come onto the scene in IT and traverse their natural lifecycle along the S-shaped growth curve from “latest and greatest” to “old and tired”.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle and Geoffrey Moore’s Technology Adoption Lifecycle have proven over time to provide reliable signposts along this journey.  Like all disruptions before it (and those that will follow) Cloud and its various children are making their way stepwise through adolescence towards broad acceptance and maturity. 

Here what I’m expecting in 2011:

1. Generalized Cloud Hype Reaches its Peak:
   
   This is not to say that cloud computing is hype or necessarily more-hyped than another disruption that has come down the pike – it’s not. Perhaps we have become more efficient with our Hype (and the pace of IT market development certainly has accelerated).  Fairly consistent with Gartner’s view, I think 2011 marks the peak for generalized cloud hype.  As with all hype cycles, the “trough of disillusionment” will soon follow. Buckle your seat belts.


2. IaaS Enters Tornado Among Service Providers:
   
   Every hosting provider concerned with its survival needs something to compete with Rackspace, Amazon and Terremark. While many have dabbled over the last 24 months, most large service providers are gearing up for a real go at it. Many are still assembling their “reference architectures” for delivery and management, but they will place their bets in 2011.  This does not mean that the consumption side of IaaS is entering the early majority. This is just the supply-side growing beyond its prototypes and getting ready for the impending tornado of IaaS consumption.


3. Private Cloud Makes Strides with Early Adopters in the Enterprise:
   
   2011 will be the year of the private cloud case studies on VMware’s vCloud and Microsoft’s Hyper-V Cloud. Look for name-brand enterprises to be trotted across stage at various venues talking about the ease and instant ROI of their private cloud deployments. This is the necessary kindling for the mainstreamers who will wait on the sidelines until 2012-2013.


4. Monitoring and Service Assurance Competes with Orchestration for the Cloud Management Topic of the Year:
   
   Step #1 of cloud deployment is figuring out how to get it up and running, and how to start processing user workloads. Naturally, provisioning and “orchestration” (in its various incarnations) have been the focus.  As we really get into production, serving real users and enabling visibility, root cause analysis, capacity planning and SLA management become key.  Operators will find that legacy tools and siloed approaches to analysis won’t cut it. Next generation monitoring vendors will get more airtime as these issues surface.  VMware has a good start with the Integrien purchase, however, there is much more to do here.


5. VMware vCloud and OpenStack Lead the Way Among Cloud Platforms:
   
   While Microsoft will keep hold among its loyals, the broader battle for cloud platform leadership will become VMware vCloud Director versus OpenStack.  While both are more promising than the reality today (especially OpenStack), based on current momentum and overall partner support, the Apple versus Android battle in the cloud space will be VMware versus OpenStack.

About the Author

Since co-founding Zenoss in 2005, Bill has established the company as the fastest growing company in the enterprise IT management software market. Bill conceived the company's disruptive business strategy and has successfully guided the company from start-up to a category leader. As an IT management and cloud computing visionary, Bill has been featured on the cover of InformationWeek Magazine and is frequently consulted by the media and industry analysts for his insights on IT management and the broader open source software market.

Prior to Zenoss, Bill held product and marketing leadership positions with two of the early pioneers in cloud computing - Digex and USinternetworking, both of which achieved category leadership and had successful IPOs on the NASDAQ. Before entering the start-up domain, Bill spent 5 years with Accenture, Inc. (formerly Andersen Consulting) where he led architecture and development of OSS/BSS applications for global telco's.

Bill is a member of Phi Beta Kappa and graduated with distinction from Duke University, where he earned a degree in Electrical Engineering and played Varsity Soccer. Bill sits on the Boards of Era Corporation, a subsidiary of SRA, and the Open Management Consortium; and is a member of the Chesapeake Regional Tech Council's Board of Directors.