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CloudHealth Technologies 2014 Predictions For Cloud

VMblog 2014 Prediction Series

Virtualization and Cloud executives share their predictions for 2014.  Read them in this VMblog.com series exclusive.

Contributed article by Joe Kinsella, CTO & Founder, CloudHealth Technologies

2014 Predictions For Cloud

Emergence of Cloud 2.0

The early cloud was a jumble of established tech giants and startups, with Amazon pushing IaaS, Microsoft / SalesForce pushing PaaS, and a host of startups offering a mixed bag of services in between. In the end though, Cloud 1.0 was defined by the market share winner, Amazon, and was defined as: on-demand compute, storage and network services, charged based on consumption, and controllable through APIs (infrastructure as code).

2014 will bring the emergence of Cloud 2.0: a re-envisioning of PaaS that delivers standalone high value / high margin point services, built on top of IaaS. Whereas the original PaaS was envisioned as an end-to-end development and deployment platform for applications (e.g. Force.com, Azure), the new PaaS is a collection of vertical services that enable the solution to specific problems (e.g. data warehousing, data analytics, video streaming).

While Cloud 1.0 was innovative and disruptive, from the perspective of Clayton Christensen's disruptive innovation curve (see graphic), it provided support for primarily low and medium quality uses of infrastructure. Cloud 2.0 will enable the delivery of higher quality uses of infrastructure, enabling cloud computing to solve problems previously very challenging with virtualization / IaaS.

Cloud Portability Becomes Harder

Whereas the standardization of Cloud 1.0; instances, block storage, object store, and databases has made portability mostly manageable by early customers, the adoption of Cloud 2.0 services like data warehousing, data analytics and video streaming will result in a substantial divergence between cloud stacks. As organizations adopt higher level services, there will be an increasing concern for cloud portability and vendor lock-in with Cloud 2.0. This will in many ways mirror the operating system wars of the early/mid-1990s, with customers and ecosystem providers finding a commitment to a technology stack (e.g. OpenStack, AWS) increasingly important.

Google vs. Amazon

While it will be several years before we can declare a winner in the battle for the cloud, to date it has been all Amazon. Even the most enthusiastic cloud evangelist will admit the next best vendor is at least two years behind Amazon. This will change in 2014 as Google will emerge as a real challenger to Amazon, competing on both price, breadth of services, and reliability.

While being a successful cloud provider requires the close orchestration of hardware, software and services, the winner in the end will be the vendor that innovates the most with software. Both Amazon and Google have proven their ability to be top innovators in software (e.g. BigTable, S3), and we will see them emerge to battle head-to-head over high profile customers in 2014.

The Long Goodbye to Private Cloud

The private cloud has one major chink in its armor: it is developed, deployed and managed by the same IT organizations that provided enterprises their current underutilized, underperforming, and rigid data centers. While private cloud technologies have substantially transformed IT's ability to manage more efficient data centers, their success will increasingly be measured by the opportunity cost of the business to work with Amazon or Google. While private clouds will be available beyond the next decade, the discussion in 2014 will shift from public vs. private to public vs. hybrid.

Rise of ITSM Data Integration

Since the advent of cloud computing we have seen a near complete disruption of traditional ITSM suites like IBM Tivoli, HP OpenView, CA Unicenter. In their place are new, cloud-friendly, best-of-breed, point solutions like Chef, Puppet, Splunk, New Relic, Nagios, and Sensu that are assembled by customers based on specific requirements. However, the vertical focus of these point solutions has resulted in "key hole" views of the infrastructure, which make it increasingly difficult to manage the business supported by applications / infrastructure at enterprise scale. As cloud ecosystems continue to grow this will result in an increasing focus on data integration between the new ITSM point solutions, and the evolution of a new product category: cloud management integration.

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About the Author

In his role as Chief Technology Officer and Founder of CloudHealth Technologies, Joe Kinsella focuses on CloudHealth’s vision to enable organizations to realize the full potential of cloud computing without having to sacrifice cost, availability, continuity, or service level. He sees CloudHealth bringing the cloud to the enterprise in a new paradigm of cloud adoption with IT service management for the cloud. Joe has 20+ years of experience in delivering commercial software for both startups and large enterprises. He was previously VP of Engineering at the Amazon-backed cloud archiving company Sonian, where he developed and managed large scale cloud infrastructure spanning multiple public clouds. He was also a managing director at Dell, where he led global engineering teams delivering multiple software as a service (SaaS) products. Joe was also Vice President of Engineering at SilverBack Technologies, where he helped pioneer remote management software, acquired by Dell in 2007. He is an advisor to the University of Massachusetts Boston Entrepreneur Center, and blogs at High Tech in the Hub.

Published Thursday, December 05, 2013 6:19 AM by David Marshall
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