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Tesora 2015 Predictions: A Look Ahead at the Cloud, OpenStack, Database Landscape


Virtualization and Cloud executives share their predictions for 2015.  Read them in this series exclusive.

Contributed article by Ken Rugg, CEO, Tesora

A Look Ahead at the Cloud, OpenStack, Database Landscape

Our company is the leading contributor to the OpenStack Trove database as a service project, so that is the lens I look through every day. With that in mind, here are some of my observations and predictions for the year ahead.

1. In 2015, more enterprises will make plans to use OpenStack than VMware's cloud offerings. 

In a recent report entitled "Enterprise cloud platforms gather momentum: Watch OpenStack and 'don't blink!'", 451 Research reported that OpenStack had nearly caught up with VMware in terms of new project opportunities.  The total number of enterprises planning to use OpenStack including those already running pilots doubled over the past year and is closing in on the number of those planning to use VMware.  In 2015, I predict that OpenStack will build on this trend and overtake VMware as the number one cloud platform in enterprises' plans.

Furthermore, by 2016, I predict that the total number of OpenStack projects, both planned and in production, will exceed the total number of clouds, planned or in production on VMware.

That would represents astounding growth over two years because last year the number of OpenStack projects in plan and production was roughly a third of those for VMware.  This is consistent with the recent trends we've seen in the growth rates of these two platforms, however, with OpenStack more than doubling every six months while VMware has remained flat or seen only small increases.

2. One of the big players like HP, IBM, or Red Hat will announce the first OpenStack customer deal worth $100 million.

This year Mirantis announced a $30 million deal with Ericsson [].  With so many big enterprises adopting OpenStack and most of the industries biggest IT vendors throwing their hats into the ring, in 2015 I expect one of them to "flex their enterprise relationship muscles" with a deal that seriously trumps this.

3. No new projects will be approved to become part of the OpenStack integrated release.

In terms of development for the OpenStack project, I don't foresee any new projects being approved to part of the integrated OpenStack release like Trove was in 2014.   So, my prediction is OpenStack will not graduate any more incubated projects in 2015 other than the already approved for Kilo Ironic. I expect the focus of the Foundation to (rightfully) be on usability, testing/hardening/stability for the existing core projects; (sorry Zaqar, Designate and others).

4. OpenStack Summit will not (yet) overtake VMworld or AWS re:Invent as the biggest cloud community event.

While I foresee the day when OpenStack Summit attendance will overtake VMworld and AWS re:Invent numbers, that won't be next year since Summit is less than half AWS re:Invent at this point and that is nearly half the size of VMworld which remains the "Big Daddy" when it comes to cloud conference events.

5. OpenStack consolidation will continue with at least one more major acquisition

After the Metacloud acquisition by Cisco and CloudScaling by EMC this year, I believe that trend will continue and, in terms of M&A, we'll see further consolidation. My leading candidates are either Piston Cloud Computing or Nebula becoming part of a larger organization.

6. Microsoft will come to embrace OpenStack and make Azure compatible with OpenStack

OK, this one is perhaps a little out there, but Microsoft is already contributing to OpenStack and working to make HyperV a first class citizen of OpenStack.  Note that I'm not suggesting that Microsoft will rebuild Azure on top of OpenStack infrastructure.  Instead, I see them pulling a classic from their long time playbook to "embrace and extend" OpenStack by building compatible API's for Microsoft Azure. 

7. The Docker market will continue to evolve at an incredible pace, prematurely entering the "Trough of Disillusionment"

Recently, we've witnessed the seemingly overnight success story of Docker, but in 2015 I predict Docker will reach what Gartner likes to call the "Trough of Disillusionment". Don't get me wrong; I believe Docker is a great tool and will be wildly successful.  However, reality will set in as actual implementations take place in 2015 and we may even see the failure of some major enterprise initiative blamed on Docker. The hype pendulum will swing as the current irrational exuberance will shift to an over reaction in the opposite direction as people realize that while quite useful, Docker containers will not solve world hunger, cure cancer, or make enterprise IT as simple as the big red button from Staples.  

8. 98 of the Fortune 100 companies will adopt a NoSQL database

Historically, Oracle has claimed that its technology can be found in nearly every industry and in the data centers of 98 of the Fortune 100 companies. With the rise of NoSQL and explosion of "Big Data", the number of different database types being used in enterprises has been accelerating rapidly.  That's why I believe that in the year ahead, one of the NoSQL leaders, Cassandra (the Apache open source distributed database management system), MongoDB (open source leading NoSQL database), and Hadoop (the Apache open source framework for processing Big Data) will match Oracle's claim of being found in the data centers of 98 of the Fortune 100 companies.

So there you have it. I'm looking forward to another eventful year ahead.


About the Author

Ken Rugg is a founder and the CEO of Tesora, the company focused on delivering a database as a service platform for OpenStack. Ken has 20 years experience in strategic planning, business development, mergers and acquisitions, product definition and development in high technology. 
Published Wednesday, December 17, 2014 8:19 AM by David Marshall
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