Virtualization and Cloud executives share their predictions for 2016.  Read them in this 8th Annual VMblog.com series exclusive.

Contributed by Adam Stern, founder and CEO of Infinitely Virtual

Writing the History of 2016

(1) The year of the semantic backlash.

In 2016, I'm fully expecting a cloud computing backlash, if it's not already under way.  The backlash really isn't about architecture but about language.  Any day now, the trend-setters will shift the terminology around -- again.  At the end of the day, off-premises computing will be combined with on-premises computing, based on different strategies and different types of companies - and they'll keep doing that indefinitely.  Whether it's called "cloud computing" or not is irrelevant.  The words change, and the technology for off-premises will continue to mature, then be re-infused back into on-premises.  It's a bit like the space program, where NASA went to the moon and everyone got Tang; the spinoffs, in other words, are real.

So new terminology will surface some time next year.  It wasn't that long ago that everyone was crowing about the "client/server revolution."  From PCs to mainframes, and then PCs behaving like mainframes.  Followed by "thin client," which was just an earlier iteration of today's BYOD.  The cycle repeats itself - it's a bit more nuanced this time, perhaps, but it's still the same idea.  And hype aside, it feels very much like an evolution, not a revolution.

(2) In 2016, this much will become clear: Seattle isn't Cloud HQ.

Fueled by hiccups from two oversized players, recent reports of the cloud's death have been greatly exaggerated.  To the degree tech pundits have been checking its pulse, the cloud is presumed to hover in a fixed point somewhere near the Space Needle.  It will become absolutely clear in 2016 that Microsoft's Azure and Amazon Web Services are not the cloud. 

The cloud exists precisely for those small and midsize businesses that lack a tech army. 

Microsoft and Amazon simply aren't set up to focus on niche segments without a Fortune-style customer in the mix.  They thrive on a "high volume, low transaction cost" model, which was never intended to accommodate small and midsize businesses.  The cloud, however, is nothing if not radically dispersed; it's a vast ecosystem consisting of thousands and thousands of vendors with offerings tailor-made for verticals and specific markets.  By that measure, Amazon and Microsoft are but two players within a very large landscape, which is why you won't find many small businesses hanging out with Azure or AWS. The cloud wasn't even invented in Seattle; that honor goes to VMware (Silicon Valley) and RedHat (Raleigh, N.C.).

That said, Amazon and Microsoft will help contribute to a new normal in the cloud market during 2016, by dint of their negative example.  Indeed, popular discontent with the cloud may well increase as other (invariably smaller) vendors try to emulate the low-touch Amazon/Microsoft model.  For vendors serving SMBs, that's a fool's errand. 

Cloud providers who are delivering for small and midsize business have long since validated the efficacy of the cloud.  Indeed, they provide the fuel to keep cloud computing alive and kicking - vigorously.   There's plenty of innovating going on in the application containerization space, so I expect to see any number of emerging, VC-driven cloud companies make their mark this coming year.  I feel safe in predicting that most of these new players won't need to be anywhere near Washington State.

(3) Security won't be a bug but a feature.

Security has been the cloud's ostensible Achilles heel virtually since inception.  I say "ostensible" because it's often been much more about perception than reality.  In 2016, I look for security to improve - both on the merits and in how the user community regards it.  New auditing procedures and standards bodies that improve on SAE-style audits will in fact deliver greater security and much more uptime, and offer users that much more peace of mind as a result.  Chalk this up to the maturity of the cloud model (which, in its own way, is yet another proof point on the side of the cloud's staying power).  Off-premises computing will continue to be a vibrant part of the scene, whatever it may be called - application containerization, Infrastructure as a Service, Software as a Service, whatever.  They're all part of a single unifying movement that isn't going anywhere in 2016 or anytime soon.

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About the Author

Adam Stern is founder and CEO of Infinitely Virtual (www.infinitelyvirtual.com - @iv_cloudhosting) in Los Angeles.