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NanoVMs 2019 Predictions: The Container Ecosystem Implodes, Open Source Wars, The Rise of Edge

Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2019.  Read them in this 11th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.

Contributed by Ian Eyberg, CEO, NanoVMs

The Container Ecosystem Implodes, Open Source Wars, The Rise of Edge

The Container Ecosystem Implodes

Bitcoin ain't the only super-hyped technology over the past few years that's starting to die an ugly death. Containers and their extension, kubernetes (k8s), are starting to unravel as early adopters start to de-containerize en-masse.

There is a trend to "de-cloud" right now - we'll see the same thing happen with the container ecosystem and that will probably start with the acquisition of Docker. I'm going to guess Microsoft takes them as they've been trying real hard to increase their developer cred over the past year with acquisitions like Github, and Google is hardly going to shell out for Docker, nor would AWS.

Why is everyone fleeing? One of the problems is that kubernetes, led by Google, was a failing all out frontal assault to move AWS customers to GCE, which was a classic embrace, extend, extinguish play gone horribly wrong. What they didn't realize is that making it the de-facto container play, organizations are starting to figure out that they fall into two different categories. One is those that need way more than what containers have to offer, the other find containers and k8s to be way too complex and want way less. For instance we always knew that containers had horrific security issues and that's only one of their limitations. Those organizations that wanted an ‘ease of use' will find themselves flocking to serverless platforms. Either way this ecosystem is going to implode this year. I say good riddance.

Devops will continue to explode as the need for organizations to find competent people to actually provision all the software that is being written and bought is fast approaching a skills gap - more so than the cybersecurity skills gap in my opinion. Devops professionals who largely don't code at all are on average taking home more pay than software developers. That should be concerning to organizations that have not invested so much yet but also emphasizes that change and opportunity are knocking at the door.

Open Source Wars

We are starting to enter very very interesting times for open source. The open source of 2019 is nothing like the open source I grew up on in 1999. We even have venture capital firms named "Open Source Capital". What's the catch? Open source today is largely seen as a marketing tool to get early users hooked on a technology platform - it has ceased to be technology and is now firmly in the marketing department.

On another broad stroke AWS and other large cloud providers have come in and stolen the commons and pimped it on the streets. This is combined with the fact that your average day to day developer wants open source to be ‘free' as in "free beer" although what's concerning is that the free as in "free speech" doesn't even mean anything to these developers anymore. One only needs to look at recent examples in various channels like github where original maintainers have been viciously attacked for not "keeping things up to date" and having very popular projects taken over to mine illicit crypto-currencies. That whole "everyone can see the source" argument has been thrown completely out the window. The modern day software ecosystem simply doesn't work like that anymore sadly.

Now we couple that with the fact that we are starting to see lots of customers start to "de-cloud" in general as mentioned before. It's not just companies like the aforementioned Kroger that aren't allowed to use AWS but also the fact that a lot of older organizations that went through expensive digital transformation efforts found that they got digitally screwed in the process.

I don't know what the prediction for open source is for 2019 but I would not be surprised if the cathedrals start to outshine the bazaar.

The Rise of Edge

Traditional IoT has been adopting massive amounts of compute. We've seen restaurant chains such as Chik-fil-A go all in and start putting edge servers inside each of their stores and running compute on-site with full AI capabilities. We've also seen Kroger start to rack out their stores. This trend will only continue.

This goes well beyond the ‘industrial iot' meme. This is classic cloud compute moving away from the cloud to where the data is produced. Expect to see a lot of activity in this area and sorry Amazon, your reign is now over. Edge compute will utterly dwarf the public cloud compute model.

The rise of edge is going to destroy cloud computing.

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About the Author

 

A self-taught expert in Computer Science, specifically operating systems and mainstream security, Eyberg is dedicated to initiating a revolution and mass-upgrading of global software infrastructure, which for the most part is based on 40-year-old tired technology. Prior to cracking the code of unikernels and developing a commercial viable solution, Eyberg was an early engineer over at Appthority, an enterprise mobile security company. He also worked for Bluff.com doing poker analytics and studied Computer Science briefly at the University of Missouri-Rolla before pursuing a call to travel the world.

Published Monday, January 07, 2019 9:12 AM by David Marshall
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