Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2020. Read them in this 12th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.
By Sally Bament, VP of Cloud & Service
Provider Marketing, Juniper Networks
5G Will Come in Many Forms
2020 is poised to be a transformative year for
service providers as developments in 5G, AI and 400G drive innovation across
the industry. In the year ahead, we will see a variety of 5G deployment styles,
seamless VR/AR experiences and major M&A deals concerning AI leaders.
All flavors of 5G welcome
When it comes to rolling out 5G services, there isn't a
"one-size-fits-all" approach. As we've seen in recent months, many of the top
service providers are doing things differently. Whereas Verizon and AT&T
have launched 5G networks using high-band spectrum to deliver high speeds to
targeted areas, T-Mobile has compromised speed with a low band spectrum in
order to service a wider coverage area. Meanwhile, Sprint is betting on
mid-band spectrum. Over the next five years, service providers will have
multiple ‘layers' of 5G coverage, depending on spectrum re-farming and
allocations, each with their own benefits and drawbacks. In addition, Dynamic
Spectrum Sharing (DSS) will begin to roll out in 2020 and, if successful, will
accelerate wider 5G coverage (and allow LTE to remain a workhorse), especially
for SPs without low/mid-band spectrum available. One thing is certain: all of
these methods will be welcome.
Game on with cloud gaming
The gaming industry opportunity is no longer a secret as
cloud hyperscalers have rushed in to get a piece of the action. Turns out,
Cloud Gaming on the move is also one of the hottest consumer use cases of 5G,
driven by the need for big bandwidth and near zero latency to render real-time,
multiplayer, action games from the cloud. Consumer use cases for 5G will become
clearer in 2020 with high def video, AR/VR/MR and Cloud Gaming in the top
three.
Equipment
vendors will deliver on the promise of 400G
As network traffic continues to
grow exponentially, cloud hyperscaler data centers, followed by service
provider WANs, data centers and eventually metro networks will reap the
benefits of 400G and the unprecedented capacity it will bring. This year we saw
the big providers start to unearth the potential of 400G networks, but in 2020
and beyond, the focus will be on deploying 400G-ready networks so users
can fully realize the rewards of 5G, AR/VR, 4K video production and other
high-bandwidth applications.
M&A will end the era of
‘AI-washing'
Everyone wants a hand in AI, and many emerging businesses have been guilty of
"AI-washing" rather than delivering true self-learning and operating smart
technology. In 2020, the true AI providers will distinguish themselves from the
imposters through capital investments and purchases. As more large telecom
companies and enterprises look to utilize advanced AI capabilities for
streamlined network operations and connectivity, we will see a spike in M&A
deals targeting smaller AI firms in 2020. After all, AI and automation are
critical to managing ever increasing network complexity and ensuring fast
delivery of services in the cloud era.
Esoteric routing protocol innovations enter the spotlight
Routing protocols, including segment routing and EVPN, take
center stage as lofty "digital transformation" and "cloudification" visions at
service providers (SPs) hit the execution phase. Incumbent network operators
are stuck between two worlds: looking forward with plans to "cloudify" their
businesses but faced with the reality of existing networks and legacy
organizations. Routing innovations can help bridge the gap between the billions
of dollars of investment already in the ground and the move to architectures
more suited for the cloud era.
EVPN will gain in usage as SPs discover it's a key protocol
in merging layer 2 and layer 3 networks. EVPN overlays are breathing new life
into legacy, L2 data centers by bringing the benefits of IP fabric
architectures down into spines and leaves. In the metro, EVPN will be an
important tool in linking L2 metro networks with L3 edge networks, as some
network functions that have historically resided in centralized SP PoPs (points
of presence) are distributed further out to the new edge of the network - that
is, closer to end users.
Wireline wireless convergence
Over two decades ago, service providers (SPs) realized that
running multiple IP networks in parallel wasn't economical. This ultimately led
to convergence on IP as the universal protocol of choice. Network "convergence"
has had a checkered past since then, with numerous false starts. What ever
happened to cellular/WiFi convergence?
With revenues flat and traffic continuing to explode, the
unsustainable state of network economics needs another disruption. The 5G
deployment cycle offers an insertion opportunity for new converged
architectures. Wireless offload solutions can re-route the traffic of
data-hogging mobile subscribers over wireline cores built for bandwidth and
performance rather than mobile cores (EPC) primarily designed for mobility and
portability. Converged subscriber core architectures are being driven by
industry groups, including the Broadband Forum (BBF) and 3GPP, with standards
for 5G/wireline mediation functions such as access gateway function (AGF) and
fixed mobile internetworking function (FMIF). In 2020, SPs begin serious
wireless wireline convergence efforts.
Hybrid Telco Clouds of VNF, CNF and PNF
Driven by the need for speed and enticing new
revenue opportunities, service providers are investing - and will continue to
invest in - cloud technologies supporting Virtual Network Functions
(VNFs). The healthy selection of VNF-based solutions supports a diverse
ecosystem of software solutions while offering choice to avoid vendor
lock-in. However, some service providers view the VNF model as a phased
approach to achieving the long-term goal of a cloud-native environment based on
containers, Kubernetes, microservices and service mesh. The reality is that
telco cloud technology will host a hybrid environment of VNF, CNF and even PNFs
to support those data-centric computes that are simply outside the
price-performance boundary of the standard Intel x86 CPU.
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About the Author
Sally Bament, vice president of cloud &
service provider marketing at Juniper Networks, is responsible for leading and
executing the company's marketing plans to drive awareness and demand for
Juniper's industry-leading networking solutions. Sally brings more than 25
years of experience in management, program management, marketing, sales and
business development in the networking and telecommunications industries.