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2020 Predictions: Get Ready Here Comes 2020

VMblog Predictions 2020 

Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2020.  Read them in this 12th annual series exclusive.

By Brad Rowland and Kevin Goodman

Get Ready Here Comes 2020

Brad and Kevin have remained friends and business colleagues for nearly 20 years and across 4 companies. This is fairly unique in the tech industry, and likely because they live in different states, but still something to be said for two type-A serial entrepreneurs.

Kevin is starting his 2020 predictions like he does every year, by calling the Atlanta Braves as the winners of the World Series. Eventually, he'll be right, like the time they won last century, and when it happens, he'll act as if he knew it all along.  

The last time Kevin and I wrote predictions for VMblog was 2014. To get ready for this article, we looked at those predictions from six years ago, and you know what? Big surprise -- almost every prediction was wrong! 

2014 will be the year of DaaS! Wrong. 

Self-driving cars! Not yet. 

Bitcoin at $800? Haha, we got this one partially correct, but we should have added a zero. 

We predicted that computing power would increase, and storage costs would decrease. Wow, we sure went out on a limb for that one. 

And the Braves? Not even close.

With that track record, we decided to throw caution to the wind and, in doing so, ruffle a few feathers with this year's predictions, and any prediction you don't like were probably from Kevin.

Not only will 2020 NOT be the year of DaaS (or cloud desktops, ASP, desktop utility, thin client computing or whatever you want to call desktop remoting). There will never be "The Year" of DaaS in the traditional sense. Desktop remoting, which has its use cases, will never garner more than ten percent of the Windows market where it replaces the complete local experience. Yes, there are new technologies in this market, but if they are successful, they will merely cannibalize the incumbents. It will always be more efficient to run a Windows application on a Windows endpoint.

Brad has been calling every year the "Year of DaaS" since he started working with Citrix in 1995, so we would love to be proven wrong on this. I'll know we've turned the corner when suddenly one day I have an RDP client on my ROKU.

2020 will be the year of consolidation and shake out. 

With the acquisition of CloudSimple, Google, with its Google Cloud Platform (GCP), will become more prominent in the EUC space. 

Citrix and Nutanix will merge to defend the private data center space.

The new company (Nutrix? Citrin?) will acquire an RPA (Robotic Process Automation) vendor to produce reports that show CIOs the cost savings by remaining on-premises.

Nutanix will not be the only storage vendor affected in the shakeout. We predict there will be more M&A activity by and amongst storage vendors.

Despite hiring some of the best and brightest minds in EUC, Amazon WorkSpaces will fall short of its user subscription goals and struggle to gain corporate acceptance.

Rumored to have been on the market for nearly a decade, Liquidware Labs will finally be acquired by either Google or Amazon. With the release of AppVolumes 4.0, the VMware Workspace One bundle (Workspace One, Horizon and AppVolumes) will become the hands down best option for corporate customers. We predict Citrix will make either an acquisition or an announcement to counter.

In 2020, we hope to see the first really useful attempts at combining AR and VR with desktop remoting.

Edge computing and 5G technology will breathe new life into the Thin Client space, but 2020 will come and go before 5G will become widespread.

LEO satellites from providers like SpaceX will radically improve bandwidth and shed historic latency constraints of earlier satellite technology and start the disruption of the global internet market.

Blockchain will solve its energy consumption issues and regain its place in FinTech strategy discussions.

Changes in privacy laws will make it easier for consumers to profit from their personal data. Tens-of-thousands of orgs paying people .10 cents per month for their data could create a capitalist alternative to Universal Basic Income.

You will pay more for "streaming services" (Disney+, Netflix, Amazon Prime, and others) than you did for cable.

Developments in battery technology, like lithium-coated glass electrolyte, will triple battery storage capacity, radically improving the potential of electric cars, wearables, and drones. As a bonus, Brad will finally be able to binge Sherlock on Netflix without being hunched over a charging station at the airport. "Solid state" batteries will be lower cost, higher capacity, rapidly charging, and hopefully have less propensity to burst into flames.

Security plays, such as Ionic Security, will become ubiquitous in EUC organizations due to the intense pressure placed upon CIOs to protect and secure user's data.

The global digital population will finally cross 60%.

Kevin would like to predict that the Colorado Technology Hall of Fame will eventually induct Brad Rowland for his contributions to FEDC TechSTART and other initiatives that will make rural Colorado one of the go-to locations for tech startups.

Baby Yoda will be in the Top 10 meme content for 2020 (I have spoken!), and someone, anyone, will make a more attractive electric truck than Tesla.

In 2014 we wrote, "Technology advancements by themselves are not what we're looking for when we think about the future. Having more technology in a greeting card than we used to land the lunar module isn't changing our lives the same way landing a man on the moon did."

We certainly got that right, and we feel the same way today. 


About the Authors

Brad Rowland

Brad Rowland continues working with his friends and colleagues on his 25-year love affair with EUC, while focused on economic development in rural Colorado. He has held IT, product, and marketing leadership roles at Southwestern Bell Mobile, Wyse, AppStream, Symantec, FSLogix, and Microsoft.

Kevin Goodman 

Kevin Goodman advises companies in the EUC space while waiting for his non-compete with Microsoft to end (sometime late in 2020). He is also on the Board of Directors of Enduring Hearts - the only nonprofit dedicated to funding research that helps kids with heart transplants live longer, healthier lives.
Published Tuesday, January 28, 2020 6:32 AM by David Marshall
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