Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2024.  Read them in this 16th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.

Illuminating the Future: What 2024 Will Bring for Optical Networking

By Rob Shore, SVP, Marketing, Infinera

2024 promises to be another interesting year for optical networking. The industry should be past its post-pandemic recovery, with most supply chain and subsequent backlog buildups behind us. As such, network operators can truly get back to looking forward, enhancing their networks, and planning for new services.

Welcome to the Party - CSPs Begin Their 400G Coherent Pluggable Journey

One of the big trends you will see in 2024 is the 400G pluggable revolution finally ramping up in network applications. To date, 400G pluggable deployments have been dominated by low output power (-10 dBm) ZR and ZR+ technology and have been deployed largely in simple point-to-point fiber data center interconnect (DCI) networks for hyperscalers. Traditional network operators have been slower to adopt 400G pluggables as their networks require a higher-performance pluggable, including 0 dBm launch power and incremental operational features such as direct management, out-of-band noise suppression, and higher optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR) tolerance. These network-grade pluggables saw initial availability in 2023. As capacity demand continues to rise, we will likely see a significant rise in deployments in 2024 in communication service provider (CSP) networks.

Expanding the Optical Highway - Adding Fiber Capacity in the Era of Shannon

Another significant trend in 2024 is a shift in direction for increasing fiber capacity. Historically, network operators could expect a 20-30 percent improvement in spectral efficiency with each new generation of coherent optical engine. However, with sixth-generation coherent technology (such as Infinera's ICE6) capable of supporting 800 Gb/s transmission on a single wavelength, the industry has drawn close enough to the Shannon limit that successive generations will provide more modest spectral efficiency gains (e.g., ~10-20%). As a result, network operators will begin exploring alternative methods that enable them to increase the amount of data that can be carried by each fiber pair. The most straightforward solution is to increase the amount of usable spectrum. Some equipment providers have answered this call with solutions that expand the usable spectrum from the extended C-band (4.8 THz) to the Super C-band (6.1 THz). This technology provides nearly a 30 percent increase in fiber capacity. With the latest generation of transponder technology and Super L-band capabilities, these solutions can now provide nearly 100T of capacity per fiber. As a result of continued capacity demand, network operators will increasingly implement this newer generation of expanded-spectrum optical line systems in 2024.

3-nm-based DSP Solutions Win the 800G Coherent Pluggables Race

 In 2024, we will also see the commercial availability of the first generation of 800G coherent pluggable optics based on 5-nm digital signal processor (DSP) technology. While this technology will see some deployments in niche applications, we predict the bulk of the market will wait for the next generation of 3-nm DSP solutions that provide a number of critical incremental features. These features include multi-vendor interoperability with probabilistic constellation shaping modes as well as significantly reduced power consumption and superior reach.

AI/ML Traffic Deluge Sparks Innovations in Data Center Connectivity

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have been all the rage lately. However, realizing the benefits of these technologies requires tremendous capacity in addition to innovations in inter- and intra-data center connectivity. While the current trajectory of for coherent pluggable optical engines appear on track to handle inter-data center connectivity requirements, the debate for intra-data center connectivity solutions is ongoing. 2024 will see robust debate and early innovations in an effort to address this challenge. So far, these emerging innovations include 100G SERDES, linear drive optics, and co-packaged optics. These innovations need to address the raw throughput requirements of AI/ML applications while also being extremely power efficient.

Governments Announce Awards to Localize Semiconductor Manufacturing

For the last few years, governments have been passing legislation to provide funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and increase supply chain security. In 2024, we expect to see the first set of winners of grants from these programs. While the full the impact of this funding will not be felt for several years, 2024 will mark an important step toward achieving the strategic goals of revitalizing domestic semiconductor research and technology leadership while increasing supply chain autonomy and national security.

Illuminating Possibilities in 2024

Despite new and lingering macro challenges that impacted the industry in 2023, advances in optical networking continued to light the way in helping network operators boost capacity, implement more flexible and power-efficient transport infrastructure, and streamline network operations. As the new year approaches, we remain confident the industry will see additional optical innovations that uncover new possibilities for network operators to improve the connectivity experiences of their customers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rob Shore, SVP, Marketing, Infinera

Rob Shore is the Senior Vice President of Infinera's Global Marketing organization. He is responsible for Infinera's Global Marketing efforts, including solutions, content, campaigns, digital and social media, trade shows, advertising and sales enablement. He has held roles in engineering, system testing, market management, account management, technical sales and marketing.