Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2024.  Read them in this 16th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.

The Economy May Stay Flat, But AI Will Continue to Soar - Causing Concern and Opportunity

By Jeron Paul, CEO, Spiff

Are we or aren't we? Is it an economic downturn or a recession? It felt like we spent much of 2023 arguing about just how bad the economy was. Still, ultimately it didn't matter because we all needed to make tough decisions, whether it be budgeting, the workforce, or the prioritization of one project over another.

One thing the uncertainty didn't do was stunt innovation. Artificial intelligence (AI), which has been around for a long time, had its big breakthrough. Most companies are hustling to incorporate ChatGPT, whether to improve their internal processes or user experiences - or both. But what are the longer-term implications of AI if guardrails aren't established?

Here are my thoughts on what may be in store for 2024.

Cautious Optimism - but Still Planning for the Worst

There are signals that things are getting better. We all want that, of course. The growth of the economy in Q3 was the latest sign of optimism that things will turn around in 2024. But, when you did your planning and budgeting, did you do it with optimism or the worst-case scenario that things will remain flat in 2024?

My guess is it is closer to the latter than the former because blind optimism is bad for business. Pressure remains on tech companies, who will continue to face elongated sales cycles and stiff competition on pricing as companies search for the best deal. Play the long game and take a conservative approach to growth in 2024. 

AI is Great ... But We'll See More of the Darkside Emerge

As I sit here and think about the new year, Sports Illustrated has egg on its face for creating fake AI profiles and articles. It's just one of the dangers of AI - and likely the least dangerous of them. One of the tremendous benefits of AI is the gift of time: simplifying processes, eliminating busy work, and freeing employees to work on real, tangible, impactful work.

I strongly believe in AI legislation and responsible AI - there is just too much that can go wrong long term for us to not step back and develop some guidelines to how the technology should be applied. The recent legislation out of The White House begins to address some of my concerns and Europe could also lead the way - much like it did with data privacy with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). 

More regulation is coming - it has to. I earned my stripes as a developer before I became an entrepreneur and what we're looking at is not a cool little innovation. AI is bigger than the internet and there is a risk of more obsolescence than we've ever considered in technology.

Software Communication Takes a Big Step Forward

Innovation in AI may be leading the way, but it's not just AI that will change how we communicate using software. AI, machine learning (ML), augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and speech-to-text are all seeing rapid innovation - which dramatically changes how humans interface with machines.

Coders will be in high demand, particularly those with expertise in advanced technologies. Companies will need to completely rethink their user experience because of an increase in voice, eye, and gesture input. It's a new wave of digital transformation, one emphasizing all the senses a worker brings to the job and translating those into a computer.

This isn't a quick fix. Depending on the industry, IT workers with these skills are aging out and opening the door for the next generation of coders focused on making software more human.

Responsible Innovation is the Focus in 2024

Legislators will get a handle on what's happening with AI. They will see not only the overwhelming value of the technology but the risks if we continue to let it be implemented unimpeded. The result will be a lot of great technology companies - including Spiff - that are focused on the responsible implementation of AI.

All of this innovation will happen with the cloud of the economy hanging over it. Even as I sit here with my cautious optimism, I do think we are in for far better days as we hurl toward the end of 2024 and into 2025: we will have survived all of this economic uncertainty, continued to innovate, and be in a position to deliver really novel technologies to our customers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jeron is a 4x founder who loves building software companies. Prior to founding Spiff, Jeron founded Capshare, Scalar, and Boardlink. He has worked as a Director of Product Management at Thomson Financial, a Principal at Signal Peak Ventures (formerly vSpring Capital), a $400M early-stage venture capital firm, and as the CEO of Scalar Partners. Jeron loves outdoor endurance events, soccer (indoors and out) and mountain biking. Jeron has a dual concentration degree from BYU in Philosophy and Economics and an MBA from Harvard.