Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2025. Read them in this 17th annual VMblog.com series exclusive. By Brian O'Neill, CommScope VP, Access Network Solutions
Today and in the near term, service providers (SPs) find
themselves with an unusual technology landscape, both diverse and flexible,
when considering the evolution of their hybrid fiber/coaxial (HFC) networks.
Historically, SPs' access networks have advanced along at a regular, orderly
upgrade cadence in step with evolving standards. DOCSIS® 1.0 was published in
1997, 2.0 in 2002, 3.0 in 2006 and 3.1 in 2013. These advances have come at
regular intervals and involved specific upgrades to support them along a single
technological path.
However, with DOCSIS 4.0, published in 2019, that once
straight and narrow path splits, diverges and reconnects in ways that other
standards have not. For SPs, this is actually good news, as this
diversification offers greater flexibility in how they migrate their networks
to (ultimately) unified DOCSIS 4.0. The most likely destination for SPs in this
cycle, unified DOCSIS 4.0 integrates both ESD and FDx DOCSIS 4.0
technologies-meaning SPs can adopt either as an intermediate step without
worrying about being frozen out of the ecosystem.
First, we need to summarize the different standards
involved. ESD, or extended spectrum DOCSIS, uses orthogonal frequency division
multiplexing (OFDM) to provide 10 Gbps downstream and 6 Gbps upstream and low
network latency. FDx, or full duplex DOCSIS, delivers symmetrical multigigabit
upstream and downstream speeds which is ideal for video conferencing and other
applications that require a wide pipe in both directions, with a particular
dependence on fiber connectivity. Both ESD and FDx are part of the overall
DOCSIS 4.0 standard, but their specifications prevent them from interfacing
directly-meaning SPs must select deployments that best meet their requirements.
From this, one may expect this divergence to be a problem,
like choosing between VHS and Beta videotape standards. Fortunately, unified
DOCSIS 4.0 incorporates both, so no SP will find itself stuck in an
infrastructure dead end-and this is what makes the unusual diversity of current
options such a boon for SPs in 2025 and the years following. It empowers early
adoption of DOCSIS 4.0's immense spectrum without forcing a wholesale network
upgrade all at the same time, a particularly worthwhile benefit for Tier 2 and
Tier 3 SPs who prefer not to absorb the cost and inventory requirements up
front.
In addition to ESD and FDx, D3.1Enhanced, (D3.1E),
offers an even more economical way for SPs to leverage a substantial portion of
DOCSIS 4.0's downstream speeds right away, via CMTS software upgrades and field
deployments of next-generation CPE devices, by adding additional OFDM channels
to mid-split and high-split DOCSIS 3.1 infrastructure to deliver up to 8 Gbps
downstream performance. For SPs operating on a longer upgrade cycle to DOCSIS
4.0, this option provides an economical steppingstone to DOCSIS 4.0-like speeds
from updated modems.
RF is in the spotlight again
HFC networks see a lot of attention paid to the fiber
portion, simply because extending SP services further out into the network
depends on high-performance fiber. National infrastructure projects devoted to
pushing fiber into underserved and rural communities has also been a primary
driver of network growth over the last few years.
But to enable DOCSIS 4.0 bands and deliver 10G network
speeds, SPs are once again focusing more attention on the RF side of the
network, thanks primarily to new amplifiers that can support the 1.8 GHz DOCSIS
4.0 spectrum. These amplifiers are essential to extend the reach of the coaxial
network further from fiber nodes without degrading network performance. Here
also, SPs are finding an unusually rich range of options available, as a number
of smaller and newer manufacturers offer 10G-capable amplifiers. In a highly
commoditized and competitive market, SPs must leverage every economy available
to them, and a broader range of solutions providers can only serve to drive
down costs. While Tier 1 SPs are able to leverage favorable terms by scale,
smaller SPs will continue to take advantage of the benefits afforded by
multiple DOCSIS 4.0 technologies, as well as multiple fiber and RF solutions
providers.
HFC networks vs. fixed wireless access
SPs are not merely in competition with each other; in recent
years, fixed wireless access (FWA) has emerged as a lucrative business for 5G
and 4G cellular networks. Using surplus spectrum to carry broadband traffic,
mobile network operators (MNOs) are able to broaden established customer
relationships and preserve loyalty by bundling cellular and broadband services
over their airwaves. In some markets, FWA has emerged as a strong competitor in
the race to connect rural communities where cable and fiber are not yet fully
established.
Like DOCSIS networks, FWA can deliver high speed
connectivity and-where 5G is used-extremely low latency, important for
supporting many networked activities from streaming video to competitive
gaming. Connected via an on-premises base station and integrated Wi-Fi®, FWA
networks are potentially able to reach a large number of consumer and
commercial subscribers. Even so, FWA positions itself as a complement to,
rather than a replacement for, HFC networks. This is because of HFC networks'
main advantage-one that will only expand with the ongoing rollouts of various
flavors of DOCSIS 4.0-which is in the width of the pipe. FWA's upstream and
downstream are limited based on the bands available to the specific deployment,
and performance can vary based on other network demands being managed from
minute to minute.
Unified DOCSIS 4.0's symmetrical upstream and downstream
speeds are simply in an entirely different category than those possible with
FWA at this time. While FWA does enjoy a pricing advantage for the customer in
most cases, that advantage is limited by its current 100 Mbps speeds and is
likely to erode as time goes on due to the upgradable nature of fiber networks.
To add spectrum to a cell site generally requires the addition or replacement
of antennas, radios, connectors and cabling, while DOCSIS 4.0 networks can
often add spectrum via a split upgrade, or via virtual cable modem termination
system (CMTS) or distributed access architecture (DAA) operation.
Many roads, one destination: Unified DOCSIS 4.0
In 2025, SPs will chart different paths forward. Some will
bridge to DOCSIS 4.0 downstream performance via DOCSIS 3.1E, others will deploy
ESD and FDx infrastructure according to their specific network needs. They will
also have an expanded universe of solutions providers to work with. However
those first steps are taken, the only real destination in the short to medium
term is unified DOCSIS 4.0, incorporating both ESD and FDx technologies into a
truly game-changing HFC network.
##