Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2026. Read them in this 18th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.
By Michael George, CEO, Syncro
The next major chapter in AI will be written by small and midsized businesses, not the Fortune 500. The companies that move fastest, experiment most often and learn the quickest will be the ones that gain the earliest advantage. That description fits the SMB market almost perfectly, and it explains why so much momentum is already shifting in that direction as we head into 2026.
Large enterprises tend to slow themselves down through committees, reviews, pilot programs and layers of approvals. These structures exist to reduce risk but often end up reducing progress. By the time a new idea clears an enterprise steering group, a small business will have already tested it, refined it and begun to see results. AI rewards speed, curiosity and a willingness to try something new and those traits are foundational to the way small businesses operate.
Microsoft has recognized this dynamic. With the majority of SMBs running Windows and relying on Entra ID for identity, Microsoft is increasingly focused on building AI and IT Service Management capabilities for MSPs and their small business customers. Combined with the central role MSPs play as the primary IT partner for SMBs, this creates a powerful foundation for accelerated AI adoption.
Prediction 1: SMBs will adopt AI faster than enterprises
In 2026, we will see SMBs adopt AI at a pace that outstrips large organizations by a significant margin. They will integrate AI into support operations, customer communication, workflow automation, and day to day processes long before enterprises finalize their internal roadmaps. For many small businesses, the early wins will show up in reclaimed hours, improved service levels, and a noticeable reduction in repetitive work. These gains do not require massive systems overhauls. They simply require the willingness to experiment and the support of an MSP who can guide them.
Prediction 2: MSPs will become the primary drivers of AI adoption
MSPs will play a defining role in how AI is used across the SMB market. Rather than simply supporting technology, MSPs will guide customers toward practical AI use cases that deliver measurable value. This includes improving operational efficiency, reducing manual effort and identifying areas where automation can meaningfully improve outcomes. As AI becomes more embedded in daily operations, MSPs will increasingly function as strategic advisors.
Prediction 3: Data hygiene will determine AI success
The effectiveness of AI depends on the quality of the data behind it. In the coming year, SMBs will turn to MSPs to help clean up identity environments, improve configuration management and reduce shadow IT. Companies that prioritize structured, reliable data will see stronger results from AI initiatives, while those that do not will struggle to move beyond experimentation.
Prediction 4: AI will deliver immediate operational gains for SMBs
Unlike large enterprises that measure returns over long time horizons, SMBs will see the impact of AI quickly. Time saved on repetitive tasks, faster response times, and improved productivity will be noticeable within weeks. For lean teams, these gains translate directly into better service and more capacity without the need to immediately hire additional staff.
Prediction 5: Microsoft will solidify its position as the SMB AI platform
With deep penetration across the SMB market, Microsoft is well positioned to shape how AI is adopted over the next year. We should expect to see tighter AI integration across Microsoft 365, Copilot, Azure and identity services, along with continued investment in MSP-focused capabilities. These developments will make it easier for small businesses to adopt AI while maintaining security and operational control.
Prediction 6: Early adopters will gain a lasting advantage
As with previous technology shifts such as cloud and SaaS, the organizations that move first will gain a meaningful edge. In 2026, SMBs that embrace AI early will reduce costs, improve efficiency, and deliver stronger customer experiences faster than those that wait. The gap between early adopters and late movers will continue to widen.
The future of AI belongs to the organizations that act rather than analyze. Small businesses are built for this moment, and MSPs are the partners who will help them take full advantage of it. Together, they will define how AI is used in the real world throughout 2026 and beyond.
Prediction 7: MSPs will shift to an OS layer service delivery model
In 2026, MSPs and IT service organizations will start moving away from traditional service delivery models built on fragmented third party tools. Instead, a new approach centered on OS layer management will gain traction, driven by the need for tighter integration, improved visibility and more efficient operations.
MSPs will now manage from the operating system layer up so that they can achieve deeper control across identity, security, automation and device management without stitching together disconnected platforms. As this model takes hold, it will begin to replace legacy vendor-led approaches and create a simpler, more scalable foundation for delivering AI enabled services to SMBs.
##
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael George is CEO of Syncro and former CEO of Continuum. He is a seasoned technology executive with more than 25 years of experience starting, building, and leading high-growth companies. At Syncro, he is focused on helping managed service providers (MSPs) enhance efficiency and profitability through AI and other innovative technologies.
