Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2025. Read them in this 17th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.
By Tim Doiron, VP Marketing, Infinera
If you attended trade shows or conferences like MWC, OFC, or ECOC in 2024, you know that artificial intelligence (AI) was front and center in the keynotes, panels, and presentations. But AI doesn’t run on graphics processing units (GPUs) in isolation. AI requires connectivity – high-speed optical connectivity – both inside and outside the data center. For 2025, here are three predictions at the intersection of AI and optical connectivity: increased deployment of next-generation technology, operational simplification with 150 GHz grid adoption, and increased operator collaboration with managed optical fiber networks.
Growing AI Demand Drives a Connectivity Revolution – Outside the Data Center
Most of us are aware that inside the data center, connectivity speeds and power efficiency remain top of mind for data center operators as GPU clusters scale up and out – with 100,000 power-hungry GPUs now enabling the largest computing complex.
But what about connectivity outside the data center? While nascent, AI-related traffic demand is accelerating, helping to sustain an already hot data center interconnect (DCI) market with an annual growth rate exceeding 50%. In addition to driving the need for more capacity per fiber and improved cost per bit per kilometer of transmission, lower-power solutions are becoming a driving force for connectivity solutions. In 2025, look for accelerating commercial adoption of three related solutions to significantly aid operators, including: 1) 800G coherent pluggables with 3-nm DSPs that reach 1,500 km or more, 2) 1.2+ Tb/s embedded optical engines that transmit 800 Gb/s “everywhere,” and 3) Super C and Super L expanded spectrum that enables 27% more bits per second per fiber.
Operational Convergence – Aligning on 150 GHz Grid Spacing
Optical line systems (OLS) deployed in the past 10+ years support configurable flexible-grid channel spacing to enable multi-generational optical engine support as coherent DWDM baud rates continue to increase. Pre-coherent DWDM transmission utilized fixed 50 GHz channel spacing. With the advent of 600 Gb/s embedded engines and 400 Gb/s coherent pluggables, 75 GHz channel spacing has become common. The deployment of 800 Gb/s embedded engines running at 96 Gbaud introduced 100+ GHz channels to the network. While a flexible-grid OLS enables each channel and its respective spacing to be provisioned individually, doing so comes with added operational complexity for the network operator. But with multiple vendors ramping 130+ Gbaud, 1.2 Tb/s embedded optical engines and commercial adoption of 120-130 Gbaud, 3-nm DSP-enabled 800 Gb/s coherent pluggables, operators can get the best of both worlds with 150 GHz channel spacing. They get simplified network operations and support for an open, multi-vendor, multi-technology network that enables more choice, faster innovation, and improved economics. In 2025, look for most network operators to standardize on 150 GHz channel spacing to seamlessly support both embedded and pluggable coherent optics.
Connectivity Collaboration – The Rapid Growth of Managed Optical Fiber Networks
Managed optical fiber networks (MOFNs) involve close collaboration among internet content providers (ICP), a communication service provider (CSP), and an optical transport vendor. With the number of data centers expected to double in the next few years and growing demand for high-capacity optical transport among them, ICPs are looking for new ways to deliver the right capacity at the right time and at the right cost. While ICPs may obtain dark fiber and light their own private networks, doing so is not always the right answer. Local regulations may prevent transport operations. Lack of knowledgeable networking resources or the risk associated with entering a new market may mean that collaborating with a local CSP makes the most sense. With MOFNs, ICPs can drive network architecture and vendor selection, but they can also leverage the resources and operational expertise of wholesale CSPs. In 2025, look for a large increase in the number and variety of MOFN networks in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and around the globe, ranging from multi-fiber bundles to dedicated fiber pairs and to multi-tenant spectrum sharing.
In 2025, the synergy between artificial intelligence and optical connectivity will drive significant advancements in technology and network operations. In this article we forecasted three key trends: the increasing demand for AI will revolutionize connectivity outside data centers with the adoption of advanced solutions like 800G coherent pluggables and expanded spectrum, operators will streamline operations with standardized 150 GHz channel spacing to support both embedded and pluggable coherent optics, and the rise of MOFNs will see closer collaboration between ICPs, CSPs, and optical transport vendors to meet the growing need for high-capacity optical transport globally.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Tim Doiron is Vice President of Marketing at Infinera, where he leads a global team focused on innovative networking solutions that include open optical networking, next-generation mobile transport, and intelligent software automation.
Tim brings more than 25 years of networking and telecommunications experience across business and technical organizations, including roles in marketing, product management, and engineering in executive and managerial roles at vendor and service provider companies, including Coriant, Tellabs, ARRIS, Cadant, Ericsson, and AT&T Mobility. Tim was also a Principal Analyst at ACG Research. Tim is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and has authored numerous articles. He holds an MBA from Webster University, an M.S. in electrical engineering from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and a B.S. in electrical engineering from Southern Illinois University. He also holds eight patents and is a member of IEEE and Optica (formerly OSA).
