Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2024. Read them in this 16th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.
4 Quantum Cybersecurity Predictions for 2024
By Duncan Jones, head of quantum cybersecurity at Quantinuum
2023 delivered incredible progress in the quantum cybersecurity space. As we approach 2024, it is time to look ahead and predict what may come next.
Based on conversations with customers, governments, regulators and industry colleagues, I’ve drawn up four predictions for quantum cybersecurity. With post-quantum standards expected from NIST during the first half of 2024, we expect an even more hectic year ahead.
1. Post-Quantum Migration Will Be a Board-Level Issue for the Fortune 500
We saw the media conversation around post-quantum migration grow with intensity during 2023. And yet there are too many CISOs, CEOs and boards unaware of the threat and the need to act to protect their organizations from bad actors sooner rather than later. However, I expect that to change in 2024.
The release of finalised NIST standards for Kyber (now ML-KEM), Dilithium (now ML-DSA) and SPHINCS+ (now SLH-DSA) will eliminate excuses for not discussing this topic seriously. As a result, I expect every board in the Fortune 500 and beyond to be asking their executive teams: “What are we doing to protect ourselves against this very real and potentially damaging threat?”
2. Quantum Threats Will Become a Focus Point for Global Regulators
It was clear from discussions and coverage coming out of the 2023 World Economic Forum event in Geneva, that a lot of work lies ahead for the regulating authorities to respond appropriately to the quantum threat. Financial regulators face the difficult challenge of having to focus on outcomes rather than tactics, and yet steer banks towards an appropriate response to protect their industry from the quantum threat.
In 2024, we may see a raft of advisory and analysis notes from regulators explaining how banks should interpret existing regulations in light of the quantum threat. Without this, there is a risk of inaction because the threat timelines are unclear.
3. Post-Quantum Hardware Will Face Major Side-Channel Attacks
One major headache is the variety of potential algorithms that will need to be accelerated by hardware. Not only will existing algorithms persist for some time to come, thanks to hybrid modes of operation, but also new algorithms will emerge from the continued efforts of NIST. This means vendors will need to cram more accelerators into existing chip designs.
Another challenge is successfully implementing the “Fujisaki-Okamoto transform” – a mathematical operation which lies at the heart of many PQC algorithms. Thanks to the FO transform, hardware vendors have a larger attack surface to protect against side-channel attacks.
Sadly, I feel it’s inevitable these difficulties will increase side-channel attacks next year, as these first PQC-ready hardware hit the shelves. As a result, I’m bracing myself for some powerful attacks on these first generation PQC-ready chips.
4. Quantum Key Distribution Will Reach Record-Breaking Levels of Deployment
To finish on a more positive note, I expect we will see further advances in the field of quantum key distribution (QKD).
QKD remains an exciting technology for the mid-term but still faces challenges for wide-scale deployment. As we await improvements in infrastructure and technology gaps, I expect new records will be set for point-to-point distance.
I’m seeing great strides particularly numerous satellite-based systems that are getting closer to reality. As a result, I will stick with the more general prediction – someone, somewhere will announce a new record for QKD distance in 2024.
Quantum cybersecurity is not just about responding to the quantum threat. QKD, and its close cousin quantum key strengthening, are bringing about positives in the world of cybersecurity.
And while QKD may take a while longer to mature, we are already seeing key-strengthening technology deployed into production systems. This year already, Honeywell announced they are using quantum computers to generate provably strong keys in their smart meter networks.
Further progress in this area is something to be excited about in 2024.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Duncan Jones is a cybersecurity expert and the Head of Quantum Cybersecurity at Quantinuum, where he oversees the development and marketing of Quantum Origin, the first platform generating quantum-derived cryptographic keys.
