Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2026. Read them in this 18th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.
By SER Group‘s CEO Dr John Bates
Fast-forward to 2026. Some overly-optimistic AI investors may end up with egg on their faces, but AI will thrive-provided it is tightly integrated with existing document-management systems. A new “Head of AI” role will emerge, distinct from Head of IT. And the next AI use cases won’t be about generating brochures with ChatGPT; they’ll centre on empowering the workforce and strengthening IT security.
It’s going to be fine if the AI bubble bursts
“The concern around a bubble comes largely from the well-known issue of cyclical investments, and there are some extraordinary valuations out there based on the expectation that AI will deliver radical business value and major transformation.
“But while these outcomes will certainly happen in the long-term, in the short-term we have to see this as more of a dot com bubble-a period I had the interesting experience of working through myself. At the start of that era there were something like 200,000 Web start-ups, and after the dust settled, arguably only a handful-companies like Facebook and Google-grew into the giants we know today.
“What struck me, even at the depths of the dot-com crash and the subsequent financial recessions, was that software continued to be bought and used, albeit at lower volumes, as people could still get incremental value out of it. The same is true for AI: tools that work and move the financial needle will continue to be adopted and used.”
Could a new job role emerge: the CAIO?
“As AI becomes more strategic, it’s becoming clear that it’s very non-deterministic-a fancy computer science way of saying it could say one thing at 9am and something completely different after lunch. No real business can work like that. For AI to be more than a toy, it really has to be embedded in your company’s proprietary and protected institutional �memory.’
“To truly take off, I predict we’ll soon see leaders whose sole focus is managing AI-not just IT or Digital, but someone 100% dedicated to wrangling and overseeing all AI initiatives and ensuring a business is maximizing AI’s benefits. It could be a hugely important role to aspire to: step forward the Chief Artificial Intelligence Officer. In fact, I have just appointed one at SER.”
The coming marriage between modern AI and old-fashioned document management
“But to become transformative and actually generate real savings and profits, the AI that does survive any crash will have to be deeply integrated with core business systems. It has to run across these systems to uncover value and generate actionable business insights. That means tapping into all your corporate knowledge bank and data, which is in your documents, invoices, memos, PPTs, Word files and PDFs.
“I believe 2026 will be a huge year for proven technologies like AI-powered Intelligent Data Processing (what I call �AIDP’). Acting as a connector between business information and capable AI, AIDP will start to break even as an investment by delivering tangible value.”
AI: for much more than writing your marketing materials quicker
“2026 is shaping up to be a big year for two areas of business that haven’t yet felt the full impact of AI: HR and Cyber fraud. In HR, we will see AI agents curating CVs, shortlisting candidates for hiring managers, running KYC checks, monitoring high-potential employees, and spotting early hints of people possibly thinking about leaving that you don’t want to lose. Meanwhile, your competitors will be using AI to scan LinkedIn and social media to lure talent away.
Right on the heels of HR, AI will make a practical difference in your cyber fraud defence systems. The scale and speed that properly configured AI can deliver may be your only realistic hope of combatting the flood of deepfakes. As fraudulent content now appears so believable, generative AI worsens data-security risks, and it’s going to become a very tense battle between our �good’ AI and their �bad’ AI.”
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr. John Bates is Chief Executive Officer of SER Group. John is an experienced CEO, with over 25 years of industry experience, and he has collaborated three times with SER’s majority owners, the Carlyle Group. John is also Non-Executive Director of Sage Group PLC, a leader in cloud accounting and financial management software.
Prior to SER, John was CEO of Eggplant, a pioneer of AI-powered software test automation (acquired by Keysight Technologies), CEO of Plat.One, an IoT apps platform (acquired by SAP) and Founder/President of Apama, a pioneer of streaming analytics (acquired by Software AG). He has also served as a C-level executive in several public software companies, including Software AG and Progress Software. He holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Cambridge University.
