Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2026. Read them in this 18th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.
By James Hadley, Founder and Chief Innovation Officer, Immersive
In 2026, the illusion of cyber readiness will finally collapse. Recent performance data exposes a concerning confidence gap defining cybersecurity today. Nearly all organizations believe they’re prepared for a major incident, yet real-world exercises show only 22% accuracy and an average of 29 hours to contain an attack. Confidence is outpacing capability.
The next year will mark a turning point as leaders realize resilience isn’t declared; it’s demonstrated. Readiness will become a measurable business metric, not just a compliance checkbox. The focus will shift from reporting preparedness to proving it under pressure, across every level of the organization. And the industry won’t have to wait long for the reality check; the pressure exposing this gap is already building.
Threats and technological evolutions such as AI-augmented attackers, identity-based intrusions, and AI-weaponized social engineering will stress-test every assumption the industry has held about where capability must rapidly evolve.
Against this backdrop, several defining trends will reshape the cybersecurity landscape in 2026.
AI-Empowered Threats Will Redefine the Attack Economy
AI is reshaping how attackers operate and extract value. As demand for large, diverse datasets accelerates, cybercriminals are likely to experiment with new extortion models. Rather than merely threatening to leak stolen information, they may warn victims that their data will be sold into loosely regulated AI training pipelines. This fast-growing gray market is difficult to police. This shift raises the stakes for organizations, exposing new consequences for failing to secure sensitive data.
At the lower end of the spectrum, novice attackers will see their baseline capabilities rise. Emerging AI-powered “security-researcher” agents can discover vulnerabilities in open-source software, giving script kiddies access to exploits they could never produce on their own. This expands the pool of potential attackers and increases the volume of opportunistic intrusions defenders must absorb.
But not every advantage scales with AI. At the higher end, true sophistication still depends on stealth, which is something AI cannot replicate. Operational security, remaining undetected during intrusions, and minimizing forensic footprints remain deeply human skills. These continue to be the hardest parts of the attack chain, and AI will not make them easier.
However, while AI won’t replace the human elements of a sophisticated intrusion, it will accelerate the development of attacker tooling. This will make targeted operations faster and more repeatable, reinforcing why defenders can no longer rely on assumed readiness.
Threat Hunting Reimagined: AI as Force Multiplier, Not Replacement
As AI accelerates the pace and adaptability of attacks, the pressure on defenders extends far beyond keeping tooling up to date. This is most visible in threat hunting. Signature-based detection still has its place, but attack methodologies evolve too quickly for static indicators to keep up – and the best teams hunt for behavior and intent, not alerts. AI may excel at spotting these patterns at scale, but human judgment will remain the deciding factor.
This tension becomes even more pronounced across critical infrastructure, where uptime equals safety and unintended disruption carries real consequences. Automatically isolating a compromised laptop is one thing, but making rapid decisions that affect critical operations is another entirely.”
Recent attacks on zero trust architectures have made this reality unavoidable. Even the most “secure” designs can be subverted when adversaries log in rather than break in. Defenders will increasingly rely on AI-driven behavioral analysis to detect these subtle, credential-based intrusions, patterns that humans cannot reliably parse in real time. But they will also need proof that automation will act safely and effectively when a real incident hits.
True resilience will come not from technology or people alone, but from verifiably demonstrating that both can respond together under pressure – with confidence earned through evidence, not assumption.
AI-Driven Social Engineering Will Expose the Human Readiness Gap
By 2026, AI-weaponized deception will define the threat landscape. Attackers will use AI to scale hyper-realistic social engineering, deepfakes, and phishing campaigns at unprecedented speed. Organizations that rely solely on technology, processes, or policies as their primary defense will fail.
People will remain a critical part of an organization’s defence – yet a dangerous readiness gap persists. 71% of organizations label their readiness programs “extremely mature,” but resilience scores remain flat. This reveals a fundamental error in approach: we are informing people about threats, not regularly exercising their ability to withstand them under pressure.
Successful organizations will be those that balance people, process, and technology. They will win by transforming their workforce from a primary target into a hardened defensive layer capable of recognizing, disrupting, and defeating sophisticated, AI-driven attacks.
2026: The Year Cybersecurity Becomes Proof-Based
Across every domain, a single theme defines 2026: resilience must be proven, not presumed. The organizations that emerge strongest will test themselves relentlessly, validate their readiness continuously, and treat cybersecurity as a demonstrable capability.
The collapse of the readiness illusion won’t be a failure. It will be the moment the industry finally grows up.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Hadley is the Founder & Chief Innovation Officer of Immersive. He founded Immersive (formerly Immersive Labs) in 2017 to help organizations build confidence in the cyber knowledge, skills and judgment of their entire workforce. The idea came from his time teaching GCHQ‘s cyber school, where he noticed traditional training methods suited neither the people nor pace of cybersecurity.
Immersive is now the leader in people-centric cyber resilience, helping organizations continuously prove and improve their ability to prevent and respond to cyber threats. Tailored to individual roles, Immersive‘s approach ensures organizations are always ready for an ever-evolving threat landscape, including the opportunities and challenges posed by AI. With a relentless focus on evidence, Immersive provides unmatched visibility into your cyber resilience. Through a single enterprise platform for individuals, teams, and the entire workforce, Immersive empowers organizations to Be Ready for what‘s next.
