Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2024. Read them in this 16th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.
How the Curtain Falls on VMware in 2024
By George Crump, CMO at VergeIO
In 2024, the fallout from Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware will be fully realized. I have conducted more than 600 interviews with VMware customers to identify major concerns and pain points. The following are my predictions for how, and why VMware users will be most challenged, both those who stick with it and those seeking alternatives.
Thousands take a hike
Based on my research I can say that VMware will lose at least 10,000 customers within the year, which is rather unprecedented. The pain points around expensive licensing, complexity, and quality of support have only been amplified since the acquisition news. Only a small percentage of users surveyed said they are not intending to make a change from VMware.
You better shop around
Questions have abounded, including rumors that VMware would shift its priorities to large enterprise accounts. As rumors are realized, users are shopping. If they haven’t already, most organizations will start scouting out alternatives six months or more before their license expires. It takes time to fully vet replacements, and what we don’t want is users rushing into a band-aid solution. I anticipate some chaos in the market as users seek out new platforms.
But they’re hanging on
Hanging on to old hardware, that is. VMware users grew accustomed to being limited in their hardware options, whether that was to save money on licensing or simply to get their money’s worth. Users I spoke to are holding on to server and storage hardware longer than what the industry would consider standard, and they don’t intend to do a refresh any time soon. However, those who jettison resource-hungry VMware may find they get better efficiency from even older hardware.
Slim pickings
Infrastructure software is inherently complicated, and users seeking alternatives will find their options limited. Open-source alternatives can be far more complex than even VMware, ironically, and they aren’t well supported. Those determined to replace VMware with another platform will find few providers that can deliver a viable option, particularly for very small or very large environments or those requiring service beyond email portals.
Wide-open opportunity for those who can
With tens of thousands of users whose licenses are set to expire, the playing field is wide open for providers that can deliver an alternative. That includes solution providers that are current VMware partners (partner relations have not been Broadcom’s strong suit). This will be the gift that keeps on giving over the next three years, and vendors that can take advantage of it should do well.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
George Crump is CMO of ultraconverged infrastructure company VergeIO. Crump is a former storage industry analyst and commentator.
