Industry executives and experts share their predictions for 2026. Read them in this 18th annual VMblog.com series exclusive.
By Simon Fried, VP of Corporate Communications, Classiq
If there is one theme that characterizes the development of quantum technology in 2025, it is this – from roadmaps to readiness. In almost every metric, quantum moved on significantly in 2025. The very tangible gains have sparked renewed optimism that 2026 will be the year when the theoretical discussions of recent years will be complemented by practical applications. It’s going to be a very exciting ride. From my vantage point, working with enterprises and partners globally, five themes will define the year ahead.
1. Quantum advantages will arrive
Can we expect quantum advantage, where a quantum computer performs a calculation or solves a problem significantly faster or better than any classical computer could, by the end of 2026? I think we could. However, we need to be cautious about defining terms here. I am not suggesting a wholesale replacement of classical computing is on the horizon. Instead, in complex workflows, specific sub-routines will be routed through a quantum processor, and they will run more quickly or more accurately than their classical equivalents. I would characterize that as a meaningful advantage, albeit one delivered as part of a hybrid quantum-classical flow.
The interesting question is “in which industry is this breakthrough likely to take place?” Finance, given the huge levels of investment, is a strong candidate, as are materials science and chemistry. In each, there are discrete sub-problems within larger pipelines that can benefit from a quantum path. Think of 2026 as the year when production teams begin to insert well-scoped quantum steps into established classical workflows and are able to prove the fidelity of the innovations by delivering real-world impact.
2. Software takes center stage
For years, the quantum industry spotlight has focused on hardware. Hardware is pivotal and developing apace, but 2026 will be the year the market recognizes that software quality is just as critical to outcomes as device quality. As hardware matures, stakeholders will pay more attention to programing effort, efficiency and implementability.
The emerging expectation is that quantum software must be production-minded: scalable, optimized, portable and integrated. Impressive yet still imperfect machines need code that is shorter to run effectively. Companies that invest in software upskilling and scalable production will be the ones that turn roadmap promises into operational results.
3. Hybrid supercomputing moves from theory to practice
In the near and medium term, almost everything meaningful in quantum will be hybrid. Around the world, we’re seeing continued buildouts of on-prem and co-located systems, many of which are sited in government-funded research institutions or are sited alongside traditional HPC centers. That pattern will persist into 2026. Most users will access quantum compute through the cloud or via partnerships with national labs and universities. Data sovereignty concerns will be handled, as they are today, through established agreements.
What business leaders need to recognize is that hybrid integration is about to become an engineering priority. The practical question they need to mull over is “where in my established HPC pipeline is a quantum subroutine most likely to pay off?” In finance, materials design and selected logistics/optimization domains, we’ll see pilot demonstrators, and likely production sub-routines, that demonstrate and weave in quantum components, measure the speed/accuracy gain, and smooth the handoff between classical and quantum resources.
4. From optimism to readiness
2025 was an extraordinarily active year for quantum, with strong private rounds, IPO activity and growing public markets access, including the emergence of dedicated Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Government programs continue to underwrite national capability, and we’re seeing acceleration in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India and Gulf states that are all stepping up with new installations and billion-dollar commitments.
Expect that to close the regional gap with the U.S. and Europe rather than overturn the current leadership.
For enterprises, the implication is clear: Watch-and-wait is no longer a strategy. By 2026, responsible organizations should be demonstrably quantum ready. That means:
Post-quantum cryptography plans need to be in place. While it’s incredibly unlikely that modern cryptography will be broken in 2026 (most credible views currently place that risk post 2030), regulators have already told businesses what to do. If they are not migrating appropriately, they will start losing bids and customers for compliance reasons.
Teams are trained and plans should be drafted. The talent pipeline is improving with universities expanding quantum beyond physics into computer science, engineering, chemistry and simulation. Quantum progress will not be linear however, and breakthroughs are unpredictable. Plan as if a talent shortage could dramatize overnight when a hardware milestone lands. The safer posture in 2026 is to behave as if there is a talent gap and invest accordingly.
Software practices are efficient. Code needs to be compact, portable and integrated into production CI/CD realities. Treat quantum software with the same discipline you expect from mission-critical classical code.
5. AI gets more curious about quantum and vice versa
The AI industry is under intense competitive and cost pressure. In 2026, expect rising curiosity from AI leaders about quantum acceleration, not because quantum will suddenly turbocharge large language models, but because it offers a path to algorithmic improvements such as better search, handling larger data sets more efficiently, and potentially improved accuracy in specific routines. It’s early, and meaningful hardware impact will take time, but the direction is set. 2026 may be about laying foundations, such as pilots, proofs of concept and teams exploring how quantum subroutines might live “under the hood” of AI systems. It’s too soon to tie this to a single application domain.
Think infrastructure-level exploration rather than a killer app.
In 2026, AI will continue to develop in the quantum field and will deliver greater democratization of the technology. Quantum coding will become more accessible through new interfaces and tools inspired by vibe coding. This will enable more end-users and enterprises to explore and develop quantum programs.
How business leaders should respond to quantum advances in 2026
Quantum computing in 2026 won’t be about theatrical, standalone wins. It will be about practical advantages in the details. The companies that treat software as seriously as hardware, plan for hybrid from day one, and move from the fence to cementing operational readiness will be the ones who prove, not just predict, the value of quantum.
Pick your pilot. Identify one workflow where a quantum sub-routine is plausible, whether that’s finance risk or materials properties and scope a hybrid implementation with clear KPIs (speed, accuracy or cost).
Invest in software efficiency. Prioritize circuit quality and scalability. In NISQ, quantum circuit depth optimization is error mitigation. The shorter your program, the better it will perform, the sooner you can run it, and the less it will cost to execute.
Build readiness, not hype. Finalize post-quantum cryptography migration plans. Upskill core teams. Formalize your hybrid HPC-quantum architecture choices and vendor pathways but stay flexible.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Simon Fried, with a background in behavioral economics and strategy consulting, has been in deep tech for many years focused on electronics, circuitry and the application of quantum to exciting enterprise challenges.
